Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
